Seven Insights from The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2024

The worldwide art market reached USD 65 billion in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

In 2023, the worldwide art market reached USD 65 billion, reflecting a 4 percent decline year-over-year, although surpassing its pre-pandemic peak of USD 64.4 billion, as reported in The Art Basel and UBS worldwide Art Market Report 2024 by Dr. Clare McAndrew, founder of Arts Economics. The report is available for complimentary download here.

The market was restricted by issues such as declining sales at premium price points, elevated inflation and interest rates, a persistent conflict in Ukraine, a new conflict in the Middle East, and ambiguity over economic growth in China. Respondents to the report also indicated increased expenses for logistics and rental charges.

Seven principal insights from The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2024 are presented below.

Global sales figures declined although stayed above pre-pandemic levels, propelled by increased volume.

Global art sales declined by 4 percent from the 2022 figure of USD 67.8 billion to a projected USD 65 billion, however stayed above the pre-pandemic level of USD 64.4 billion in 2019. All significant art markets, excluding China, experienced substantial decreases in total sales. This was counterbalanced by a rise in volume, with 39.4 million transactions, a gain of 4 percent in 2022, propelled by robust performance at the bottom tier.

Image: Art Basel

The United States continued to be the preeminent art market, notwithstanding a significant decline.

The United States retained its status as the largest national market, accounting for 42 percent of sales by value, equivalent to USD 27.2 billion. This occurred despite a 10 percent decline from the USD 30.2 billion amount in 2022, which represented its peak level to date. The 2023 value was slightly inferior than the pre-pandemic level of 2019. The decline in sales at the upper price tiers has adversely affected the US market, where high-value artworks are predominantly exchanged. Moreover, dealers faced increased costs following the COVID-19 outbreak.

China surpassed the UK to become the world's second-largest market.

Sales in China increased by an impressive 9 percent, reaching an estimated USD 12.2 billion, up from the prior year's USD 11.2 billion. It defied the trend of declining national markets, emerging from COVID lockdowns to experience a notably robust first half in the auction sector, as a backlog of inventory was presented; it distinguished itself as the sole major national market to exhibit growth at the upper echelon. Art fairs in mainland China and Hong Kong have resumed full operations, resulting in increased dealer revenue.

The UK experienced a significant market decline of 8 percent, falling to USD 10.9 billion in 2023 from USD 11.9 billion in 2022. As an additional center for the most expensive materials at auction, it was significantly impacted by the downturn in high-end trading.

Image: Art Basel

Dealers face challenges due to increased expenses and hesitant purchasers, although perform better in the lower market segment.

Galleries and dealers with sales under USD 500,000 experienced the most significant sales gain of 11 percent, and those with sales beyond USD 10 million encountered an average decrease of 7 percent. Despite varied performance across industries, dealers had a 3 percent decline in sales year-over-year, totaling USD 36.1 billion, down from USD 37.2 billion in 2022.

Auction houses encounter more significant problems than merchants.

Private sales at auction houses increased by 2 percent year-on-year, as consignors seemingly chose to conduct their transactions discreetly in an uncertain market.

Public auction sales experienced a more significant decrease compared to dealer sales. Sales declined by 7 percent to USD 25.1 billion, in contrast to the dealers' 3 percent decrease. The decline could have been more severe, but auction sales in China during the first half of 2023 featured items from auctions originally planned for 2022 that were deferred owing to pandemic lockdowns. Auction sales declined due to a reduction in high-end transactions following a record year in 2022, which was driven by strong sales in that segment.

Image: Art Basel

Digital commerce may have reached its equilibrium in the art sector.

In 2023, online sales rose by 7 percent, reaching USD 11.8 billion, which constitutes 18 percent of the market, consistent with trends in other sectors. This is an increase from 16 percent of the market in 2022. In 2023, collectors favored dealers' websites as their preferred platform for purchasing, possibly indicating a maturation of this industry sector.

The majority of dealers maintain an optimistic outlook for 2024.

In 2024, 36 percent of dealers anticipated an increase in sales, 48 percent expected sales to remain unchanged, and 16 percent forecasted a decrease. In contrast to the end of 2022, when the smallest dealers exhibited the most confidence, in 2023 the largest dealers demonstrated the highest expectation, with 54 percent anticipating an increase.