Seven Insights from The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2024

The global art market consolidated at USD 65 billion in 2023, remaining above pre-pandemic levels.

In 2023, the global art market reached USD 65 billion, experiencing a 4 percent year-over-year decline, although surpassing its pre-pandemic peak of USD 64.4 billion, as reported in The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2024 by Dr. Clare McAndrew, founder of Arts Economics.

 The market was restricted by issues such as declining sales at premium price points, elevated inflation and interest rates, the persistent conflict in Ukraine, a new conflict in the Middle East, and ambiguity over economic growth in China. Respondents to the report also indicated increased expenses for logistics and rent.

 Seven principal insights from The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2024 are presented below.

 Global sales figures declined although stayed above pre-pandemic levels, propelled by increased volume.

 Global art sales declined by 4 percent from the 2022 figure of USD 67.8 billion to a projected USD 65 billion, however stayed above the pre-pandemic level of USD 64.4 billion in 2019. All significant art markets, excluding China, experienced notable decreases in total sales. This was counterbalanced by a rise in volume, with 39.4 million transactions, a gain of 4 percent in 2022, propelled by robust performance at the lower segment.

The US remained the largest art market, despite a notable drop

The US maintained its position as the largest national market, commanding 42 percent of sales by value, or USD 27.2 billion. This was despite a contraction of 10 percent from the USD 30.2 billion figure in 2022, which was its highest level to date. The 2023 value was just below the pre-pandemic level of 2019. Thinning sales at top price rungs hit the US market, where the highest-priced works are typically traded, particularly hard. Additionally, dealers struggled with higher expenses in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

China surged past the UK to become the world’s second-largest market

Sales in China grew by a remarkable 9 percent to an estimated USD 12.2 billion from the previous year’s level of USD 11.2 billion. It bucked the trend of slowing national markets, emerging from COVID lockdowns to see an especially strong first half in the auction sector as a backlog of inventory came to the block – standing out as the only major national market to see growth at the top end. Art fairs in both mainland China and Hong Kong also ramped back up to full speed, driving dealer revenue higher.

The UK, meanwhile, saw its market drop by a stiff 8 percent to USD 10.9 billion in 2023 from its USD 11.9 billion level in 2022. As another hub for the priciest material at auction, it was strongly affected by the decline in trading at the top end.

Dealers struggle with higher costs and reluctant buyers, but do better at the lower end

Smaller galleries and dealers with turnover under USD 500,000 had the largest increase in sales (11 percent), while those with turnover exceeding USD 10 million saw an average decline of 7 percent. While performance was mixed across various sectors, dealers overall saw sales slow by 3 percent year-over-year to USD 36.1 billion from their 2022 level of USD 37.2 billion.

Auction houses see even greater challenges than dealers

Private sales at auction houses ticked up by 2 percent year-on-year, as consignors apparently opted to keep their sales out of the public eye in an uncertain market.

Public auction sales saw a more pronounced decline than their dealer counterparts. There, sales fell by 7 percent to USD 25.1 billion, compared to the dealers’ 3 percent. The contraction could have been worse, but for auction sales in China that, in the first half of 2023, offered material from sales scheduled for 2022 but were postponed due to pandemic lockdowns. Auction sales decreased because of thinning at the top end, after a record year in 2022, which was fueled by robust sales at the high end.

Digital commerce may have found its level in the art world

Online sales increased by 7 percent in 2023 to a total of USD 11.8 billion, or 18 percent of the market, in line with other industries. That is an increase from 16 percent of the market in 2022. In 2023, dealers’ own websites were collectors’ preferred venue for making these purchases, perhaps reflecting a maturing of this sector of the market.

Most dealers remain optimistic looking to 2024

Looking ahead to 2024, 36 percent of dealers expected an uptick in sales, while 48 percent expected turnover to remain stable, and 16 percent predicted a decline. Compared to the end of 2022 when the smallest dealers expressed the most optimism, in 2023 the largest dealers were most hopeful, with 54 percent expecting an increase.